PKR

Wednesday, 8 February 2012

Making good poker decisions

I was thinking recently about what goes through people's heads when they are making decisons in a hand of poker.  The amount of variables you can analyse is huge, starting from the very basic 'what is my hand?' to the more complex 'he knows I know he knows my turn range is very polorised in this spot'.  I recently read two very good examples of extremely thorough hand analyses by two excellent players:

Hand Analysis by Sauce

Hand Analysis by Phil Galfond

These examples give you an idea of just how deep your thinking can go when trying to make decisions in hands.  They include things like player history, game dynamics, psychology and HUD statistics.

However, just how much of what these guys write in these entries actually consciously goes through their heads at the time is up for debate.  Unless these players have brains that function at a massively higher rate than my own (possible I suppose, I'm not that smart) then they can't consciously think of all those variables in the 30 or so seconds you would have to make decisions.  Therefore they are either pretending they thought these things (unlikely, though we all like to embellish from time to time) or much of what they analyse occurs in the subconcious.  I believe the second factor is more likely.

It is my belief that the best poker players in the world are the ones that are able to process the most information in the subconscious when making decisions.  I have found a lot of people, like those on 2+2, can analyse a hand perfectly on a forum and come up with very logical arguments for why they would do certain things but their actual long-term results suck.  I think such people lack the subconscious set of skills.  In poker, particularly on the internet, we do not have the time to consciously process lots of information.  Also, consious poker thought is very mentally exhausting if done over long periods of time.

I think this is why I feel so much more knackered after a live poker session compared to an online one, despite the online one requiring much more actual decisions to be made.  Internet poker is what I have done for a long time now and what I know best.  Therefore it is a skill where I can make decisions most of the time without really thinking about them.  Whereas I am much less used to the live arena. It often brings into play variables I have never encountered before and therefore causes me to consciously think about more things all the time.  Being able to shift a lot of your decisions to the subconscious in online poker is actually a very necessary skill if you are playing multiple tables.  Using a lot of conscious thought on one decision can easily be at the detriment of another decision on another table which could lose you money overall.

This is why you will often see typically internet based players taking a long time to make decisions in live games.  There is no merit to making quick decisions if it means you are not analysing all the available information properly.  The only reason could be if you were slowing the game down too much and therefore making it worse.

The difficulty is that it's very difficult to train yourself to be very good at the subconscious level of thinking.  The best people are probably just the ones that are naturally the most intelligent.  I imagine just playing lots and lots of poker is the best way of advancing this skill set.

Big new tune from M.I.A and cool video.

Sunday, 22 January 2012

Results Orientation

Something poker players learn pretty early in their education of the game is to focus on making correct decisions as much as possible rather than on short-term results.  To use the simplest of examples, if we get all in pre flop with AA (which, barring exceptional circumstances, is always a profitable thing to do) against another hand and lose, then we should not conclude that our play was unprofitable.  Instead our play was definitely profitable (perhaps not optimal, but let's not get too complicated here) and factors out of our control have caused us to lose the hand.

Almost every poker player can understand not being results orientated at this level, because it is easy to understand. I say "almost" every player because you will still find players, particularly in the live arena, that fold AA pre flop and their reasoning for doing so will be because "they saw them get cracked twice yesterday" or something similar.  This of course gives us internet geeks a good laugh at their expense.  It is obviously worthy of piss-taking as folding AA pre flop for such reasons makes you a moron.

However, more poker players have a lot of difficulty not being results orientated on the medium-term level.  The medium-term level could be defined as ranging from a session to say, 50k hands.  It will be very rare that someone will win over a session or medium sample of hands and conclude they played terribly, and equally they will often not lose over that sample and think they played their A-game.  Obviously good and bad results positively correlate with good and bad play but clearly not so strongly that good play = win and vice versa.  Even the best players are very susceptible to this.  I've never heard a player win a tournament and admit they played badly and got lucky, even though this will happen frequently.  When Phil Ivey final tabled the WSOP Main Event I remember him saying something along the lines of "I wasn't all in for my tournament life for six days".  By saying this he wishes to infer that he had reached that far in the tournament by playing very well and never risking his tournament life.  Whereas in fact we know that to play a tournament for six days and never be all in with a risk of busting requires you to be EXTREMELY lucky, no matter how good you are.

The main reason we have trouble ignoring results is that we are human beings and thus programmed to see actions leading directly to results.  As poker players we are constantly battling these natural tendencies and trying to just do what we know as being 'right'.  Of course the problem is that what is 'right' is often not entirely understood all the time and why winning players will make different decisions in the same situation.  Another problem for the poker player is that we are playing a game where we need results.  We need the results (money) to buy the things we need to live like food, clothes and Tony Montana quantities of coke.  There comes a time where we need to look at results and analyse how much our decisions are reflecting this.  Typically, poker players do this too early.

Not being results orientated is actually useful outlook to take into 'real life'.  It's amazing how many people think a decision is bad if the outcome is negative and vice versa.  Football is a great example of this.  Manager brings on a substitute and within two minutes the ball deflects off his arse from a corner and ends up in the goal.  The commentators and pundits will then agree that the substitution was a great decision then praise the manager until the next game when a similar decision leads to a less desirable result and then proceed to slag him off.

Yesterday, I was talking to a non-poker friend about WPT Dublin and how a player who I didn't think was very good ended up coming 4th for 50k odd euros and I also mentioned how he had had some very positive results on PKR winning the masters twice in a row then finishing 3rd on the 3rd occasion.  I reinforced the point that I did not think this player was very good at all and also that I should be a decent judge of a poker players ability as I have played for eight years.  Despite this, my friend simply would not accept that this person wasn't a good player.  "Well he must be good surely, if he won all those tournaments" he would say.  I considered explaining variance in poker tournaments but gave up at this point  I'm pretty sure even if he eventually ended up agreeing with me that deep down he would just believe I didn't know what I was talking about. 

Anyway, this is just a mish mash of some stuff that had been going though my head and hope it is coherent enough to read.  I was probably spurred to write something about results due to my frustrating performance so far in 2012. Graph:


Of all the ways of running bad I'd say running below allin expectation is the best.  This is because you can actually see it and know you can't be doing too much wrong and therefore your confidence isn't dented too much.  Also, it's a great way to moan!

And a quick summary of other stuff:

  • WPT Dublin was a lot of fun but a losing trip for me unfortunately.  I went deep but lost quite a big flip as we were approaching the bubble and couldn't recover as I lost the next three allins.  
  • Been watching The Killing on dvd.  Great series which I highly recommend.  Think Wire fans will like it.
  • Spurs doing great and despite just losing to Man City (very unlucky) could still do a title tilt.  Also managed to get tickets for Arsenal v Spurs game thanks to PKR which is always a great game.
  • Going to APT event in London next weekend.  Next blog update will be story of how I won.

Monday, 2 January 2012

2011 etc

2011 was a good year for me in poker.  I'm pretty sure I ran above average in cash games online, mostly due to running very well at the higher stakes I played which over-compensated for the run bad at lower stakes.  I also did well at online MTTs with lots of medium scores, including five-figure results of 16k (Stars DNG), 10k (PKR 500) and 10k (Party High Roller) as well as some smaller cashes around the 5k mark.  That big score (which I would class as being >$25k) still alludes me, but I can't complain given the volume of MTTs played.  Live MTTs started rubbish as I went 0/10 until I came 3rd in the Fox Club main event for £7200 and have min cashed two tournaments since then making the year a bit above breakeven.  In live cash I have run terrible but haven't played much of it and at relatively small stakes compared to my bankroll so that's all good.

I also hit a sort-of milestone recently of recording one million hands on my current HEM database which is by far the most hands I have ever had stored at any one time.  Here is the graph:

  
This has occurred over a period of three and a bit years.  I'm very happy with the consistency and winrate per hand but it also makes me think I should be increasing my volume.  Given all the changes to the poker industry in 2011, there's no time to take for granted the ability to make money at this game.  Looking at this graph makes me think another thing too....where has all my money gone!?

I don't really have any specific poker goals for 2012. Mostly it's just to just keep enjoying playing and surviving.  Winning a big tournament would be nice too!

Sunday, 4 December 2011

Struggling for Motivation

Finding it difficult to get in any kind of volume at the moment.  I really wish I had that 2005 feeling again where I couldn't wait to play but can't imagine ever being that motivated again.  There's a lot of reasons for loss of motivation but one is that I sense I have somewhat reached the pinnacle of where I'm ever going to get in the game.  I don't think I have the natural talent or aversion to variance to shoot for the really high stakes.  Winning a big live tournament would be great, but I don't like live poker enough to trawl my way through the live circuit attempting to bink something.  As a result, it's hard to see how my current poker game is ever going to be elevated above what it is at the moment, which is a mid to high stakes internet grinder.  I'm grateful to be in this position because I'm making a lot of money relative to all the pro poker players in the world, and a lot more than the average person of my age in the jobber market.  But it's still a bit depressing to think you have reached your 'end-game'.

I think a lot of the interest and passion for poker comes from that feeling that the game could take you anywhere.  You see people who you can relate to achieve big things in the game and make a lot of money and you see no reason why this can't be you (basically the Moneymaker effect).  Unfortunately I haven't necessarily reached those heights you dream about when you watch the WSOP re-runs or High Stakes Poker but still at one point I never thought I would play five figure pots or be making six figures a year.  I suppose it's important to put things into perspective.  I do still have a big passion for poker.  I still watch/read/talk about it a lot because I enjoy it, rather than feeling I have to for some sort of education purposes.  I certainly don't play purely for money...yet anyway.

I'm going to try and put in 10k hands this week and then depending on how that goes and how I'm feeling I might just call it a year for poker.  I probably should spend the time after that thinking about how I'm going to stay motivated for 2012, because this could become a problem.  Especially when I have no obvious exit strategy post-poker.

On a lighter note, I got into a conversation the other day about favourite X-factor auditions with a mate.  His was Ant and Seb, mine was this beauty.  Don't judge the judge.

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Whaddup

I keep intending to write a blog but have nothing particularly insightful to say so it's gonna be a standard 'update and upcoming plans blog'.  Readers must be excited.

After my 3rd place score in London I have struggled with motivation to play online but grinded out 20k odd hands and made a small profit.  No particularly exciting sessions or hands spring to mind.  It was mostly grinding 2/4 with some 5/10 mixed in.  Again, the games seemed good when they ran though it's annoying to see 'action tables' running at 2/4 and people playing there instead of the regular tables.  I didn't play many online tournaments either.  I continually try the WPT Dublin satellite on Monday nights and never manage to accumulate a stack (except for the time I bubbled it I suppose) so just seem to slowly bleed chips then shove my short stack in a standard spot and lose.  The same can't be said for the monthly PKR 500 where I can't seem to not at least final table it.  I came 5th this month for 3k or so.

In non-poker news I went to Amsterdam last weekend with a few people who don't play poker for a living which was a lot of fun.  The weekend mostly involved eating, drinking and some smoking, with a few touristy activities mixed in.  Amsterdam is a really interesting place, definitely worth visiting.  One negative of the trip was the hotel.  It's hard to describe it without including the words 'shit' and 'hole'.   I was responsible for booking the hotel and chose this one because the location was great and it wasn't very expensive (80 euro a night is pretty cheap in central Amsterdam).  I probably should have paid more attention to the Trip Advisor reviews which mentioned the various things wrong with the hotel.  I'm probably just a bit spoiled from being forunate enough to be able to afford to stay in nicer places (by nicer I mean Travelodge which is a palace compared to this joint)  on poker trips and alike.  I don't know why I'm moaning this much about the hotel as it made little or no difference to the enjoyment of the trip as we spent hardly any time there.

Some stuff coming up is: PKR party this Thursday as a welcome type thing for their new pro, Jake Cody. This involves a free bar but unfortunately I probably shouldn't take full advantage of it as I have to get the train home the same night and be up for a 9am Journalism class on the Friday.  Then on Saturday going to see Spurs v Bolton at White Hart Lane.  We're on a ridiculous run at the moment of nine wins and a draw in last ten Premier League games so hopefully we can keep that going.  Might stay out in London after that as well as it's JJBird's birthday.  Also in a couple of weeks time going to play the £1k event at Dusk till Dawn in Nottingham.  Winning that would be a nice end to the year.

One other thing I want to achieve early in December is doing another 12k hands so that I have a million hands in my HEM database to make a good sample for a long term graph.  So I think when I've achieved that I'll post the graph and add some thoughts about whats happened over that time-span.

Here's a funny video with segments from a DVD commentary by Arnie on Total Recall.  He gives some deep insights into the film.  You got to love Arnie!

 

Saturday, 12 November 2011

Update and some live donkament success

Since my last entry I took a week long break from poker which always seems to do wonders for your overall mental state and consequently your results when you return to the game.  Though I haven't been doing spectacularly, I have been grinding out some small wins online.  I'm confident my results will improve back to somewhere nearer expectation soon if I keep playing the way I am at the moment.

I decided to do the Fox Poker Club main event in london last weekend which turned out to be a great decision as I ended up coming 3rd for £7200!  I actually don't think I played great on both days (probably B-C game most of the time) but the donkament gods decided it was my turn to do well.  My main leaks with live play is based around not pulling the trigger in spots where I really should, generally playing too passive and sometimes overthinking situations and ulitimately levelling myself.  One classic example is where I made a terrible call down to a river shove for most of my chips largely because I felt my opponent looked too relaxed.  So relaxed in fact I convinced myself that he must be trying to look relaxed and therefore is bluffing.  I mean, this type of thinking versus an opponent I know very little about is borderline retarded.  And my call got me what I deserved.  Obviously a lot of other factors caused me to call and I may be being to harsh on myself but these are things that I need to stop doing.



Anyway, I went into day 2 with 20bb but managed to double very early with QQ vs JJ and from there always had a decent stack up until the final table bubble where I hit a couple of big hands and went into the final as slight chip leader.  The final table was a pretty passive affair overall mainly because most of the players were either passive anyway or the money meant a lot to them.  I really should have tried to run over the table a bit more than I did but I had one player two to my left who also had a lot of chips that didn't like folding.  Incidentally, he also liked hitting the nuts a lot.

I mostly watched the others exchange stacks until we were six handed and this situation took ages, so the blinds got very shallow with an average of 30-35bb.  At the break when five handed we talked about a deal for about half an hour but couldn't agree on anything. I was certainly open to a deal considering four of the five players were decent and the skill edge was so minimal with shallow stacks.  As well as this the pay structure was very steep.  We couldn't agree on one mainly because the worst player at the table who was chip leader wanted a deal where he would lock himself up £12k.  Don't think so mate.  What was funny is that he mentioned the 'good structure' a few times presumably implying that his chip lead meant he was a clear favourite to take it down.  After the break someone was allin for the first three hands so this player was then asked if he still liked the structure.  He didn't answer.

Eventually we were three handed and I was short with 15bb and called a button 10bb shove from the BB with KQ and loved seeing his JQ.  Didn't love the 99T8Q board though.  Then next hand I shoved my mini stack with T2o and got called by AQ and lost.  Pretty sure this score puts me at least breakeven for the year in live tournaments so that's nice.

As I mentioned before online was been pretty 'meh'  The games seem very good though.  I had one of my stakees over the other day and while I was playing a 2/4 game he asked who the fish and regs were.  I said "fish, fish, fish, fish, bad reg".  They don't run all the time but when they do they seem great so there's definitely loads of money out there to win.

Been loving watching An Idiot Abroad recently and the season finale was last night.  Here's one of my favourite clips from the series...

Tuesday, 25 October 2011

The inevitable downswing

I've had a pretty successful year up till now in poker so it was about time I had some sort of downswing. I started this month pretty poorly, then grinded a load of hands and made a decent chuck back, before an awful last few days brought me back down again.  Today was my worst day of the year (though I have had bigger losing days in the past).

Today was just one of those horrendous days where nothing goes your way.  I probably should have quit slightly earlier than I did as tilt was becoming a factor and I was playing in a few tough 5/10 Stars games where I need to play very close to my A-game to have any sort of edge in them.  It just felt like I was getting owned by my opponents in every single way.  If I bluffed, they called.  If I had a marginal hand, they barrelled every street.  If I had the nuts they either had air and gave up, or somehow found a check with a hand they're supposed to bet with.  I ran bad today, but the honest truth is that I probably was getting owned as well.  Anyway, I'll probably end up taking a break depending on how I feel about poker tomorrow.

To cheer myself I brought a £250 Amazon voucher with Stars FPPs and going to buy a load of pointless stuff with that.  Any DVD/CD/Book/Video Game recommendations would be much appreciated.